S&P 500 (SPY ETF) Daily Stock Prediction
I designed this stock prediction model is to be able to catch the swings in the stock market to increase our return. The stock prediction model tries to catch the short term swings up and down in the market over a couple days to a couple weeks. Trades are made at the end of the day to set up of for the predicted direction tomorrow. Position changes happen about once a week. One the right are the results if you were to follow the recommend S&P 500 predictions that the model makes.
About the Stock Prediction Model
At the beginning of 2009 I created a forecasting model for my company to decide when to buy supplies. The model was successful and gave me the idea to try my algorithm on the stock market. I wasn’t expecting much since the stock market is so complicated and since there are so many large companies that have their own fancy algorithms. However, after I created the model for the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and back tested through 10 years, I was surprised to find that the results were very good. Since April 20th 2009 I have started live testing the model by posting the predictions on this blog and also using my money to invest along with the recommendations of the SPY prediction model.
The Market Flavor Online Stock Portfolio
I also provide a sample stock portfolio that I use for the money that I'm not investing in the prediction model. It's been very successful as you can see from the results to the right. When I make changes to this portfolio I will update them through the blog.
| Cash | 35.5% |
| MCD - McDonalds | 10.4% |
| LOW - Lowe's | 5.5% |
| T - At&t | 4.9% |
| GOOG - Google | 4.3% |
| AAPL - Apple | 4.3% |
| GME - Gamestop | 4.0% |
| CEG - Constellation Energy | 4.0% |
| JPM - J.P. Morgan Chase | 3.4% |
| BA - Boeing | 3.3% |
| GE - General Electric | 3.0% |
| XLV - SPDR-Health Care | 2.9% |
| RIG - Transocean | 2.8% |
| BG - Bunge Ltd. | 2.2% |
| AMX - America Movil | 2.1% |
| AXP - American Express | 1.8% |
| SLB - Schlumberger | 1.7% |
| ADM - Acher Daniels Midland | 1.7% |
| GS - Goldman Sachs | 1.4% |
| PVH - Phillips-Van Heusen | 0.8% |
Updated Jan 16th
About the Stock Picks in the Portfolio
The goal of the Market Flavor portfolio is to outperform the S&P 500 through investing in quality value stocks. Most of the stock picks for the portfolio are for medium to long term investing. Not all investors should be fully invested in stocks. There are multiple websites that can help you pick an asset allocation for your specific situation. We also recommend seeking the advice of a professional financial advisor.
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